Russia lacerates Ukraine and Oil picks up the tab, hitting three digits after 7 years   

24 Feb 2022: Crude oil skyrockets to $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, while natural gas snowballs after Russian attack on Ukraine


Russia being one of the largest exporters of oil and gas, greatly influences the supply, and this major disruption has a negative impact on the energy inflation which was already in a bad shape owing to the geo-political tensions and the red-hot consumer inflation.


Benchmark US crude oil futures and natural gas futures surged by 5% in Asia trading.


This surge came after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military assault against Ukraine, which was then followed by a series of unprovoked bombing 


The price of Brent crude was last up 5.67% at $99.38 at 3:27 a.m. ET. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures were also up 5.92% at $97.55 a barrel.


Meanwhile, US benchmark Henry Hub natural gas futures were up 5.27% at $4.84 per metric million British Thermal Unit.


Russia being the third largest oil exported in the world ( as of 2020) competes with the United States and Saudi Arabia for the top spot in exports, so “the scale of disruption and  corresponding difficulty in substituting for lost Russian supply mean that price sensitivity to Russian oil disruptions are high," said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's head of economics and strategy in a note sent on Thursday before Putin's announcement.


Oil prices could surge by 15% to 30% if 30% to 40% of Russian oil exports are impacted, Varathan wrote. He said it means that oil "as high as $115-130 (a barrel) is not unimaginable amid elevated risks of a head-on conflict between Russia and the West."


Gasoline and diesel prices were already soaring, adding to consumers' energy bills and woes and worsening the challenge for the Federal Reserve in reining in inflation and protecting the economy.


"Oil is probably up $10 or $15 a barrel because of the conflict... That will probably add, if sustained, about 30 or 40 cents a gallon to unleaded," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics told CNBC on Tuesday.


"That's as much as a half-percentage point to year-over-year consumer inflation, and we're already at 7.5%. My sense is it really complicates the Fed's efforts to rein in inflation and get back to full employment," Zandi said, per CNBC.

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