Ghana's GDP expected to spike in 2022, as Nigeria records its first surplus in over 2 years   

21 Feb 2022: According to a Fitch report, obtained by Business Insider Africa, the analysts have made projections as to the widening of Ghana’s current account deficit. The estimated GDP of the country is supposed to bump up from 2.6% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022.The estimated widening would be due to the stagnant cocoa and oil production in the West African nation.

Also, an expected spike in local demand for imported goods would lead to a narrowing of Ghana's goods trade surplus from $1.8 billion in 2021 to $1.0 billion in 2022.

According to Investopedia, a country's current account deficit widens when its exports are unable to grow at the same pace as its import volumes. Nigeria faced the exact same situation for more than two years till it was able to redeem itself and record a surplus of $3.68 billion in Q3 2021.

But the situation is not all bad for Ghana, as they may be able to manage the challenge owing to an expected increase in remittances, earnings through tourism and portfolio inflows.

"That said, this will be partially offset by an uptick in remittances, increasing the secondary income account surplus, while stronger tourism will see the country’s services trade deficit narrow. Indeed, our forecast implies that while the country’s current account deficit will expand in 2022, it will remain small compared to Ghana’s five (-3.4% of GDP) and 10 year (-5.8%) pre-pandemic averages. Meanwhile, we expect increased financial account inflows as a result of increased investment in gold mining, and an uptick in portfolio inflows, will continue to cover the widening of the current account deficit in the coming quarters, ensuring Ghana’s external position remains stable in the years ahead," part of the report said.

According to a recently published paper titled "Current Account Deficits and Sustainability in Africa: Evidence from Cointegration Approach" economics professor Eugene Kouassi established that current accounts are weakly sustainable in 45% of African economies and absolutely unsustainable in 8% of African economies.

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