Naira losses in parallel market, rough road ahead for Pound, Gold and Oil Gallops   

4 December 2018: A depreciating Dollar has done little to stem the Naira’s decline on the parallel markets with the local currency sinking towards 369N.

Political uncertainty ahead of the Presidential elections coupled with shaky Oil prices have offered nothing but bad news to the Naira. With concerns over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ability to defend the Naira compounding downside pressures, the local currency is seen witnessing further losses on the parallel markets. Investors will be keeping a very close eye on the GDP figures scheduled for release next week which should provide fresh insight into the health of the largest economy in Africa. Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy could still end the year on a positive note if GDP figures for Q3 dish out an upside surprise.

A rough month ahead for the Pound 

Traders should fasten their seat belts and prepare for a rough and rocky ride on the British Pound ahead of Parliament’s vote on Brexit this month.

A strong sense of pessimism over any deal Theresa May brings forward being rejected in Parliament will continue to erode attraction towards the British Pound. Although the Pound remains extremely sensitive to Brexit headlines, the technical picture goes in line with the bearish fundamentals. Technical traders will be keeping a very close eye on how the GBPUSD behaves above the 1.2700 support level. A breakdown below this important point will most likely pave a clean path towards 1.2630 and 1.2600 in the near term. With prices trading below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD pointing to further downside, bears remain in firm control.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

The market-friendly outcome to US-China trade discussions has clearly resulted in Gold prices jumping to levels not seen in over three weeks. 

However, the driver behind Gold’s incredible appreciation is Dollar weakness. For as long as the Dollar continues to weaken, Gold is seen trading higher. In regards to the technical picture, the breakout above $1,230 could inspire a move higher towards $1,240 and beyond.

Oil jumps as US-China trade tensions ease, but for how long?

Oil bulls were injected with a renewed sense of inspiration after the United States and China put a pause on trade tensions.

This positive development has revived risk sentiment and soothed fears over ongoing trade disputes affecting global growth. With encouraging comments from President Vladimir Putin on Russia Saudi cooperation on production cuts fuelling the upside, WTI Oil and Brent Crude are likely to extend gains in the short term. However, the fundamental drivers behind Oil’s sharp depreciation remain present. Concerns over oversupply in the markets will present headwinds down the road while any signs of renewed trade tensions could rekindle demand fears.

Source : Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

Reporting for EasyKobo on Wednesday , 05 December 2018 in Lagos, Nigeria

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