Recession!!! ok so whats new?   


Nov 23 (Lagos) - Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the Nigerian economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter, by -3.62 year-on-year in Q3 2020. The contraction is +2.48% better than -6.10% contraction recorded in Q2 2020, and -5.90% lower than the +2.28% growth recorded in Q3 2019.
 

Growth in the oil sector contracted by -13.89% year-on-year in Q3 2020, from -6.63% contraction in Q2 2020 and lower than +6.49% growth in Q3 2019, while the non-oil sector contracted by -2.51% in Q3 2020, better than -6.05% contraction in Q2 2020 and +1.85% growth in Q3 2019. Overall, the Oil sector contribution declined to 8.73% of total real GDP in Q3 2020 from 8.93% in Q2 2020, while Non-oil contribution rose to 91.27% in Q3 2020, from 91.07% in Q2 2020.

 


Reaction from our analyst


While reading the above paragraphs I had a disinterested feeling because truly whatever these numbers say, we never really came out of the last recession. 


And even if we did based on statistics, we had another devaluation, another round of inflation, another round of heavy government borrowing and we had covid-19 related economic breakdowns all over the world. 


So it's ok we will keep moving forward after all we voted for recession in 2019 and is likely to remain that way till 2023. So anyone who points this out as the next reason for market collapse, we have seen it all over the last 4 years. I'm also numb to such news now. I will continue to hunt for value stocks and keep accumulating and expect to reap real rewards post 2023. We might have rallies here and there but i'm a hungry lion who has not tasted meat for years now. 


While its not this governments fault that previous government failed to save forex for the country, the kind of intent they have shown to move Nigerian economy forward is dismal. Five years is a decent amount of time to change the direction of the economy but we are falling even deeper into recession now.


Every month I expect the inflation to rise (except when the base becomes so elevated that the increase seems low), expect devaluation in 2 years again, expect more government borrowing, more protests leading to 2023 when I expect people to vote with their minds and not on emotions, tribal sentiments and religious bigotry. 


Looking at international stock markets depresses me because we have so much to offer and yet we are nowhere close to our potential. Potential is a word I hate hearing these days. I am on the edge don't push me too much.  






reporting for easykobo.com on Monday, Nov 23 2020 from Lagos, Nigeria
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