INFLATION rises to 11.23%   

Sep 14 (Lagos) - Headline Inflation rose to 11.23% y/y (0.09% higher than 11.14% y/y in July 2018)

The food sub-index rose to 13.16% y/y from 12.85% y/y in July, while the All items less farm produce sub-index dropped by 10.00% y/y from 10.20% y/y in July.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation grew by 1.05% m/m (0.08% lower than 1.13% m/m in July 2018).

We can expect inflation to rise more as we get closer to elections due to 'election spending', The fact is that prices did not really come down but inflation came down on base effects. If you go to markets, things are not cheaper. 

Naira is so weak against the Dollar and the failure of the government to shore up its value is the main reason why prices are so high. 

Nigeria remains an import dependent economy in spite of all the government talk on agriculture, there is little to show on ground. Tomoto paste industry is still in shut down mode in spite of Nigeria's being blessed with plenty Tomato. Situation of Rice is better but people would prefer imported rice because of quality. 

The only thing saving the Naira currency for now is the high crude oil price. The moment that changes, we can expect Naira to hit 500 to Dollar or worse in no time. 

Given such  expectations, people will soon start hoarding Dollars and bring back the situation that existed in early 2016. Pray that does not happen but if it does, the inflation will again hit north of 15%. 

reporting for on Friday, Sep 14 2018 from Lagos, Nigeria

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