20 August 2018 : Speaking over the weekend, Dr. Yemi Kale, the Statistician-General of the Federation hinted at a flat GDP growth for Nigeria in Q2’18, citing the challenges in the agriculture sector as a potential impediment to near-term growth. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release Q2’18 GDP figures at the start of next week and we forecast year-on-year growth of 1.6% during the period, down from 2.0% in Q1’18.
One driver of this material decline is the moderation in oil production observed in the quarter, with initial estimates suggesting a decline of c.150,000 bpd. On the back of this, we expect flat y/y GDP growth in the oil sector in Q2’18. Meanwhile, although the manufacturing sector should have posted a decent performance — helped by a low base and stable foreign exchange — the heavyweight services sector is likely to have remained weak.
Reporting for EasyKobo on Monday ,20 August 2018 in Lagos, Nigeria
Source: Vetiva Capital Management Limited