Year-end inflation offers hope for 2018   
Jan 18 (Lagos) - December Inflation came in below analyst expectations of 15.7% y/y and 15.8% respectively, registering at 15.4% y/y (November: 15.9% y/y) despite nationwide fuel shortages that increased average premium motor spirit (PMS) prices by 18% in the month. 

The decline in inflation at year-end is most markedly seen in the m/m inflation print – from 0.78% to 0.59% – which is the lowest since October 2015 and compares to a FY’17 average of 1.20%. Across the sub-indices, Food Inflation and Core Inflation moderated from 20.3% y/y and 12.2% y/y to 19.4% y/y and 12.1% y/y respectively.

Food prices, the pressure point for most of 2017 (up 200bps from December 2016 to December 2017) have calmed in recent months, supporting the view of relative food price stability in 2018. Though up y/y (15.8% to 15.9%),

Imported Food Inflation moderated from 1.24% to 1.12% m/m, a notable improvement from previous levels (prior 4-month average: 1.28%) and in line with the trend of declining global food prices – FAO index down 3% m/m in December.

reporting for on Thursday, Jan 18 2018 from Lagos, Nigeria

Source - analysts at at Vetiva Capital Management Ltd in Victoria Island

NOTE - All opinions, views, forecast and opinions expressed in this article are those of analysts at Vetiva Capital Management Ltd in V.I.

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